The growth was broad at both ends of the price ladder: watches priced below 500 francs fared best, while expensive timepieces — those above 3,000 francs at export price — also saw shipments climb. RBC analyst Nikolaos Lafioniatis called the report positive for Swatch Group, whose Longines, Tissot, Hamilton and Swatch brands have driven the industry's volume recovery this year. "Exports to the US soared 86% last month, partly reflecting a tariff-related slump a year earlier," Bloomberg reported, noting that the sub-500-franc category led the gains. ## The US rebound is real — but half of it is arithmetic
The 86 percent September spike in US shipments comes off an extraordinary comparison base. In September 2025, exports to the United States collapsed 55.6 percent to 157.7 million francs after President Donald Trump's 39 percent tariff on Swiss goods took effect on August 7, 2025 — a levy that briefly stripped the US of its rank as the industry's top market, pushing it behind the UK and Japan. The tariff was announced in April 2025 at 31 percent, raised to 39 percent, then cut to 15 percent in a November 2025 agreement.
Brands had front-loaded US inventory ahead of the tariff deadlines — April 2025 exports spiked 149 percent and July 2025 jumped 45 percent — which makes the year-on-year optics of 2026 volatile in both directions. The cleaner read is cumulative: over the first half of 2026, FH data showed US exports down 14.8 percent against an inflated 2025 base but up 2.6 percent against 2024, which the federation cited as "confirming the robustness of the US market." By mid-year, the US had reclaimed its position as the industry's largest market — close to 20 percent of total exports, nearly as much as the next three markets combined. ## A market splitting in two
Beneath the headline recovery, the Swiss watch industry is polarizing. First-half data analyzed by consultancy LuxeConsult showed that 75 percent of the market's value growth came from watches representing just 1.3 percent of unit volumes — the ultra-high-end. Watches between 25,000 and 50,000 francs fell 8.3 percent, while "accessible luxury" pieces between 7,500 and 12,500 francs rose just 0.5 percent. "The brands have to adapt to a new situation in which it became very complicated for retailers to continue to replenish their stocks," LuxeConsult founder Oliver Müller told the Financial Times.
Volume, meanwhile, is recovering at the entry level: first-half export volumes rose 2.3 percent, driven largely by Swatch Group's portfolio. The September report — with sub-500-franc watches faring best — extends that pattern. The FH's important caveat, published on its statistics page: export figures reflect shipments from Switzerland, not sales to end consumers, and cannot be used to determine the business trends of any individual firm or group. ## Significant regional divergence September's geography told the story of two Asias and one strained Gulf:
* **China:** exports declined, extending a slump that has seen mainland shipments fall by more than a third over two years. Mainland China has dropped from the sector's second-largest market at the end of 2024 to sixth place. Global luxury brands have faced a deepening slump there amid a slowing economy and a government crackdown on conspicuous consumption; LVMH reported double-digit mainland sales declines last quarter. * **Hong Kong and Japan:** both grew in September. Citigroup analyst Thomas Chauvet flagged the pattern as "significant regional divergence." * **UAE:** exports dropped 9 percent amid ongoing geopolitical disruption. The Middle East accounts for roughly 10 percent of Swiss watch exports, and the conflict raging since the end of February has, in the FH's words, destabilized the region that "had offered the best growth potential worldwide."
One longer-term bright spot: Switzerland is due to sign a trade agreement with China this autumn that will reduce almost all export tariffs to zero. FH president Yves Bugmann: "It could give us a boost. We paid 100 million francs a year in customs duties that will be eliminated over the next few years." Breitling CEO Georges Kern is more skeptical on its demand impact — "Nobody will decrease prices in China. Brands will enjoy a higher margin there" — while noting the duty is only 3.5 percent. ## The bigger picture
The September data extends a recovery that began in earnest in mid-2026: June exports rose 11.2 percent, July 9.6 percent, August 9.1 percent. But the starting point was bruising. Swiss watch exports fell 1.7 percent to 25.6 billion francs in 2025 — a second consecutive annual decline — under the combined weight of US trade policy, a two-year, third-plus collapse in China, record gold prices and a strong franc. Sector employment fell 1.3 percent, and many brands and suppliers resorted to Switzerland's state-backed short-working-hours scheme.
The first half of 2026 was still marginally negative (down 0.6 percent to 12.2 billion francs) — meaning the year's growth is being earned entirely in the second half, and largely by the United States cycling out its tariff shock. What to watch through Q4: whether the US surge holds at the reduced 15 percent tariff rate, whether Hong Kong and Japan's momentum can offset a China that the FH does "not expect to recover quickly," and whether Middle East disruption deepens beyond the UAE's 9 percent September decline.
